According to a recent POF poll, an eighty-six percent majority of Russians are aware that President Vladimir Putin’s second term will expire in 2008. Another 12% heard something about it, and only 2% learned about this fact from the interviewer.

What kind of changes do Russians expect in the country after Mr. Putin leaves the presidential of-fice? Six percent expect positive changes, 30% anticipate negative changes, and 37% suggest things will more or less remain the same as before.

The positive changes that people think may occur after President Putin’s retirement include social improvements (healthcare, education, housing – 3%) and improvements in the national economy (2%). Another three percent anticipate an increase in salaries and pensions, and improvements in living standards in general. Groups of 1% each expect more stability and more efficient measures to be taken against corruption and crime. Some respondents (2%) suggest that improvements won’t happen unless the next leadership sticks to “Putin’s policy.”

In response to an open-ended question about negative changes that may result from a change in leadership, Russians say they mostly fear economic decline, which could manifest in: general insta-bility, inflation, energy supply problems, tax increases and unemployment (7%). Three percent of Russians expect greater social cutbacks (“welfare mothers will receive less,” “benefits for disabled people may be canceled,” “people won’t get welfare”), while another 3% anticipate a decline in liv-ing standards and salaries. Four percent fear that upon Putin’s retirement, the country will be drained, and 3% think there might be a struggle for power and a political crisis. Two percent each fear destabilization and the criminalization of society. Three percent suggest that Putin’s departure may negatively affect Russia’s international prestige and lead to a serious deterioration in Russia’s relations with other nations (“a cold war”) or even armed conflicts (2%).
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